Monday, August 02, 2004

Do You Trust The Market?

Guess that depends on one's political persuasion. First will start with what the market currently says about Bush's reelection:

Bid: 53.6 Ask: 54.2

The above values represent the percentage of electorate votes Bush is projected to receive on November 2nd. Now, this snapshot is uninteresting considering Bush has yet to fall under 50 since I've been tracking these values(there was a split-second drop, but for sake of my argument I'll handily forget about that).

However, the real fun comes in the trend, notably after the DNC wrapped up. Click the above link, then click the contract to see the lifetime trend. The pop-up is rather small, but you can certainly make up the massive jump from 50.0 to 54.2 in a 1 week time frame. The graph isn't quite as drastic as one would like, thanks to weak scaling, but the 'past week' graph demonstrates the increase rather well.

Suffice it to say, the market does not believe Kerry is the future POTUS, at least not at this point. What does this all mean? A little more than polling does, at least in my opinion. Take from it what you want, but the trend fits with reports that Kerry did not get any sort of bounce following the Edwards VP selection, nor the DNC Hoopla that bored its way to the worst ratings showing in history.